Our view of the market
Fewer, dearer trades.
How we read Westchester’s single-family market, and how it shapes what we buy and build.
Westchester’s single-family market is widely described as scarce, competitive, and rising, and the description is correct. What it does not tell an owner or a buyer is what to buy, what to build, or what to pay. Measured over the same twelve-month window each year, the county’s market has not boomed so much as contracted into fewer and far more expensive transactions.
Westchester County single-family homes, twelve months through August, 2019 vs. 2026. Source: OneKey MLS / HGAR Local Market Updates.
| Year | Median price | Closed sales | New listings | Days on market | % of original list | Avg. inventory | Months of supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $650,000 | 5,787 | 9,674 | 76 | 95.3% | 2,833 | 5.9 |
| 2020 | $685,944 | 5,501 | 8,800 | 81 | 95.3% | 2,521 | 5.5 |
| 2021 | $777,500 | 8,078 | 9,300 | 54 | 99.0% | 1,650 | 2.5 |
| 2022 | $800,000 | 6,598 | 7,707 | 40 | 101.6% | 1,354 | 2.5 |
| 2023 | $830,000 | 5,000 | 5,695 | 43 | 100.4% | 1,127 | 2.7 |
| 2024 | $917,000 | 4,377 | 5,441 | 39 | 102.4% | 870 | 2.4 |
| 2025 | $970,000 | 4,576 | 5,809 | 41 | 103.2% | 871 | 2.3 |
| 2026 | $1,060,000 | 4,586 | 5,685 | 37 | 104.2% | 833 | 2.2 |
Source: OneKey MLS / HGAR, August editions 2020–2026. Months of supply = average inventory ÷ average monthly closed sales. A median sale price is not a constant-quality index.
Sales peaked at 8,078 in the twelve months to August 2021 and have run at roughly 4,400 to 4,600 a year since 2024, while the median rose another 16%. Homes now sell in 37 days on average, for 104% of their original asking price. A median describes the homes that sold, not the depth of demand behind them. For anyone who must sell on a schedule, depth matters as much as price.
The towns we know best.
We concentrate on eleven MLS areas in southern Westchester, which together account for about 1,500 single-family sales a year. Supply is exceptionally tight: most carry less than two months of inventory, and Larchmont less than one. Several of the most valuable areas are also small. A finished home in Larchmont, Pelham Manor, or Harrison is sold to one of a handful of buyers each month, which is why we size every project to the deepest part of its street’s market.
| MLS area | Focus | Median price | Closed sales | Days on market | % of original list | Months of supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rye City | Primary | $2,704,500 | 119 | 35 | 105.4% | 1.7 |
| Larchmont | Primary | $2,320,000 | 48 | 14 | 109.7% | 0.8 |
| Scarsdale | Primary | $2,050,000 | 352 | 36 | 110.3% | 1.4 |
| Mamaroneck | Primary | $1,350,000 | 116 | 23 | 108.1% | 1.6 |
| Mamaroneck Village | Primary | $1,350,000 | 77 | 21 | 107.0% | 1.4 |
| Harrison | Active | $2,100,000 | 57 | 28 | 105.9% | 2.3 |
| Pelham Manor | Active | $1,700,000 | 38 | 40 | 100.5% | 1.6 |
| Pelham | Active | $1,655,000 | 94 | 32 | 102.5% | 1.4 |
| Eastchester | Active | $1,150,000 | 58 | 25 | 103.3% | 1.5 |
| New Rochelle | Active | $1,103,388 | 254 | 34 | 103.2% | 2.0 |
| White Plains | Active | $935,000 | 278 | 30 | 105.0% | 1.7 |
| Westchester County | $1,060,000 | 4,586 | 37 | 104.2% | 2.2 |
Source: OneKey MLS, August 2026 Local Market Updates by MLS reporting area. Reporting areas are defined by the MLS and do not match municipal boundaries exactly.
A summer price is not a winter exit.
Westchester is a seasonal market, and the seasons are wide. The county’s monthly single-family median was $920,000 in January 2026 and $1,341,500 in June, and days on market fell from 49 to 27 over the same months. Four forces drive the pattern:
- The school calendar. Most buyers here are families, and they aim to close by August so children can start in September. That pulls contracts into March through June.
- Weather and daylight. Homes show, photograph, and move better in spring and early summer, and buyers relocating from the city prefer to move in warm months.
- Bonus season. Year-end compensation lands in the first quarter and funds spring down payments.
- The mix of homes sold. Larger, more expensive family homes trade disproportionately in spring and summer, so part of the swing in the median reflects which homes sell, not only what they sell for.
A project priced to a June sale and finished in December has missed its number by a season. We time our work to the calendar: renovations are sized to be finished and listed just before the spring market, and larger projects are scheduled around each town’s approval calendar. When a home is ready outside that window, we price it to winter sales rather than to the best month of the year.
The market has done this before.
Desirable suburbs can fall, and for a long time. Westchester’s repeat-sales index rose 38.8% from 2003 to 2006 and then declined 20.0% by 2012, a six-year slide to the bottom. That was roughly in line with the national measure and far shy of the overbuilt, credit-driven markets, which fell by half or more. Interest rates alone do not set direction: when mortgage rates jumped in 2013, the county index still rose 6.5% over the following two years.
Our reading is that local conditions, including supply, schools, and the wealth of local buyers, set the level of prices, while national credit conditions move the marginal buyer and the timing of sales. The practical lesson is that price and liquidity are separate risks. Most damage in a downturn comes from the months in which homes do not sell at a price the owner can accept.
How it shapes what we buy.
Finished homes command a premium. Buyers able to pay $1.5 to $3 million for a house rarely want to manage a renovation, and the supply of move-in-ready homes is thin. That spread is where we work, and we document it house by house with comparable sales rather than a countywide average.
The biggest project is rarely the best one. Time is a cost: taxes, insurance, upkeep, and the cost of capital on a $2.5 million house can exceed a quarter of a million dollars a year before any value is created. Discretion is a risk: a project that needs a variance is decided on a board’s calendar, with neighbors entitled to be heard. Thresholds change the project: in a flood zone, an improvement costing half a building’s value can require raising the whole house. And every street has a price ceiling; square footage built past it is rarely paid for in full.
We start from what is permitted. The most productive project on a lot is usually the one reachable as of right, quickly, and sized for a deep pool of buyers, not the largest house the code allows.
Updated October 2026 and refreshed quarterly. Market data from OneKey MLS / HGAR and the FHFA House Price Index, believed reliable but not independently verified. This page describes how we think about the market; it is not a forecast, an appraisal, or advice about any property.
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